Preliminary Data Suggest King Salmon met Escapement Goals

A king salmon swims upstream.
Photo courtesy of the Alaska Region U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service.

By Allison Sayer

On June 23 of this year, king salmon retention in personal use fisheries and all sport fishing for king salmon in the Upper Copper River drainage closed. 

This was due to concerns that the king salmon run was too small to meet escapement goals with additional fishing pressure. In layman’s terms, a salmon “escapement goal” is an estimate of the number of fish that need to spawn and die a natural death in order to provide for a new generation. The escapement goal for the Copper River is 24,000 king salmon.  

In light of the concern about the fishery, I asked area management biologist Mark Somerville how he thought the kings did this year. Somerville was cautiously optimistic. He said that final numbers will not be available until October or November, after extensive data analysis and after harvest tickets are all returned. 

However, based on preliminary estimates, he believes that the “final escapement will be somewhere right at the escapement goal, maybe a little below, maybe a little above.” Even with this positive news, he said, “It’s still a pretty weak run. No doubt about that.” 

Somerville acknowledged that the run turned out to be slightly stronger than it appeared to be when the fisheries closed, because the salmon arrived late. However, he added, “We had to make the decisions when we made them otherwise we would have been at risk of going below.” 

He also believes he will receive harvest information from most fishers this year, as they have repeatedly been warned they will lose their privileges next year if they do not return a harvest report. 

Somerville hopes next year will be better. 

“I think next year’s run will be improved,” he said, “based on the number of spawners that went up the river five years ago. The 2017 run escaped something like 35,000 fish.” 

Conditions were also good in 2017, he said, “It wasn’t really hot. It didn’t flood. Things like that.” 

Furthermore, data obtained from examining commercially caught king salmon in marine waters seem to show a good four year old cohort, which should return to the rivers next year. 

Somerville also wants to remind area residents that the Board of Fish will meet in December in Cordova. The book of proposed regulation changes is currently available on the Alaska Department of Fish and Game website. 

Somerville particularly encourages young people and local guides to be more involved in the process. “Sport anglers and guides are usually underrepresented at the board meetings,” he said, although he acknowledged that the cost of attending a weeklong meeting in Cordova is a significant barrier. 

The Copper Basin Advisory Committee will meet locally in the fall to discuss proposals that are relevant to this region. 

Note: After publication of this article, some readers questioned whether “sport anglers and guides” are really underrepresented at Board of Fish meetings. I believe Somerville was referring specifically to river-run sport anglers and guides in our own Copper River area, as opposed to saltwater sport charters.