ADFG Predicts Poor PWS Pink Salmon Fishery

The 2026 pink salmon total run forecast for PWS is 21.31 million fish, with a potential commercial harvest of 14.03 million fish. This pink salmon total run forecast includes 4.73 million wild stock fish, 10.18 million Valdez Fisheries Development Association (VFDA) fish, and 6.40 million PWSAC hatchery fish. This ranks as one of lowest forecasts for hatchery returns in recent history. 

Approximately 3.62 million (36%) of the projected VFDA pink salmon return will be needed for cost recovery and broodstock, leaving 6.56 million fish available for commercial harvest. Approximately 3.50 million (55%) of the projected pink salmon run to the PWSAC hatcheries will be needed for cost recovery and broodstock, leaving 2.89 million fish available for commercial harvest. The department will manage for each district’s aerial index escapement goal for a cumulative SEG of 575,000–992,000 pink salmon. Using the overall midpoint of the SEG, 784,000 fish, there will be approximately 3.94 million wild fish available for commercial harvest.

The 2026 chum salmon forecast is 3.62 million fish. Most fish, 3.04 million (84%), are from PWSAC hatchery production, with 330,000 fish returning to the Armin F. Koernig hatchery (AFK), and 840,000 fish returning to Port Chalmers. Based on the department’s wild chum salmon forecast of 586,000 fish and subtracting the 10-year average escapement, 173,000, there is a potential harvestable surplus of 413,000 wild chum salmon.  

The PWS purse seine fishery will begin on Monday, June 1 targeting the enhanced chum salmon runs to the AFK hatchery and Port Chalmers remote release site. Both Port Chalmers and the AFK hatchery will begin the season on a concurrent schedule of three fishing periods per week. A reduction in time and/or area will be implemented, if necessary, to limit the harvest of salmon bound for other areas of PWS. 

Port Chalmers will close in late July, after which purse seine fishing periods will be opened based on the strength of wild pink salmon stocks returning to the Montague District.  Also, in late July, AFK will transition to pink salmon management; purse seine fishing opportunity in the Southwestern District will be based on PWSAC cost recovery, broodstock needs, and wild-stock escapement performance. 

Anadromous stream closures and regulatory closed waters within the open areas at AFK and Port Chalmers will be suspended during June and July to facilitate the harvest of enhanced chum salmon. The general waters of the eight purse seine districts will be managed based on the strength of wild stocks. Hatchery subdistricts will be managed based on the strength of both wild and enhanced stocks. Pink and chum salmon escapement trends and fishery performance data will be evaluated inseason and compared to average historical performance to determine the frequency and duration of openings.  

The department will use yellow Salmon Harvest Task Force markers to close terminal wild stock areas for escapement or quality concerns if needed. The coordinates for these markers are available to the public at the Cordova ADF&G office, in advisory announcements, and online at: https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/PDFs/commercial/pws/SHTF_waters_NAD83_2014.pdf.  

Additional area and time manipulations may be made throughout the season to provide commercial fishing opportunities, disperse the fleet, maintain fish quality, and obtain fishery performance data. 

Valdez Arm, Valdez Narrows, and Port Valdez will be managed for VFDA’s cost recovery and broodstock needs. Commercial purse seine openings in Valdez Arm and Port Valdez targeting VFDA pink salmon will be based on the strength of the enhanced run and VFDA’s progress toward achieving the pink salmon cost recovery goal. Typically, openings targeting VFDA fish generally start during the first week of July with regularly scheduled 14hour periods (6 a.m. to 8 p.m.). 

In the remainder of the Eastern District, openings will be based on wild stock escapement trends. On August 15, Port Valdez will be closed to commercial fishing north of a line from Entrance Point to Potato Point. 

Commercial fishing in the Valdez Narrows Subdistrict may open on September 3 to target surplus VFDA coho salmon. The VFDA-enhanced coho salmon forecast is 53,800 fish, with a forecast commercial harvest of 14,700 fish. 

The AFK, Cannery Creek Hatchery (CCH), and WNH pink salmon runs will be managed collectively to achieve PWSAC’s cost recovery and broodstock goals. Prior to run entry sustaining consistent hatchery cost recovery harvest, the department may open the WNH, CCH, and AFK Hatchery THAs and SHAs to commercial fishery harvest to maintain pink salmon quality. 

Once PWSAC initiates cost recovery, they typically intend to complete at least 70–80% of their pink salmon cost recovery harvest goal before recommending any commercial fishery openings in the hatchery subdistricts. To allow for an orderly and consistent commercial fishery, ADF&G will work closely with PWSAC to achieve the pink salmon cost recovery goal as efficiently as possible. The department evaluates late pink salmon run progress based on cost recovery harvest, commercial fishery harvest and effort, broodstock collections, sex ratios, stock composition estimates, and wild stock escapement data.